Regras que direcionam a poupança para a dívida pública ou mantêm os rendimentos abaixo da inflação, país por país.

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Brazil

Brazil's financial repression runs mainly through administered returns and earmarked credit: savings deposits earn TR plus 0.5% a month whenever Selic is above 8.5%, the compulsory FGTS workers' fund earns TR plus 3% with an inflation floor set by the Supreme Court in 2024, and both are lent on for housing, with 65% of savings deposits directed to mortgages (rising from 2027 to 100% of the deposits not held as reserve requirements) and 31.5% of demand deposits to rural credit. Income-tax exemptions for savings deposits, housing and farm notes and infrastructure debentures steer savers toward these channels. Banks hold federal debt at a zero risk weight and as Level 1 liquid assets, pension funds may hold unlimited federal bonds but only 10% abroad, and a 2019 law lets the central bank's FX gains be transferred to pay domestic debt when its refinancing is under severe strain, as happened with R$325 billion in 2020. Outflows face a 3.5% IOF tax on most foreign-currency purchases and transfers (1.10% for investment abroad), and since February 2026 crypto transfers abroad and to self-custody wallets fall under FX rules, with banks barred from dealing with unauthorised crypto platforms from 6 November 2026.

Índice de repressão
49,9 / 100
Quando as leis aprovadas passarem a se aplicar
52,3 (+2,4)
  • 14 em vigor
  • 1 aprovada
  • 0 proposta ou em discussão

Medidas em

Como o índice é construído

Cada segmento representa a contribuição de uma categoria de regras ou do pilar de mercado para o índice. A barra completa vale 100.

  • Demanda cativa 3,2
  • Financiamento pelo banco central 3,2
  • Controles de capitais 8,0
  • Tetos de juros 9,1
  • Viés prudencial favorável à dívida soberana 6,0
  • Crédito direcionado 6,0
  • Incentivos fiscais 2,8
  • Restrições a ativos reais 1,2
  • Tributos sobre transações 2,0
  • Pilar de mercado 8,4

Índice = 80% × regras (51,9) + 20% × mercado (41,9) = 49,9

O método em linguagem simples
  • Pilar de regras (0–100). Cada uma das 9 categorias pode somar até o seu peso (os pesos somam 100). A intensidade de uma categoria cresce com cada medida em vigor: uma medida conta pelo seu fator de intensidade (0,25 para intensidade 1, 0,5 para 2, 0,8 para 3), e cada medida adicional preenche parte do espaço restante. Assim, a abrangência contribui com retornos decrescentes: duas medidas de intensidade 3 resultam em 96%.
  • Pilar de mercado (0–100). Média dos indicadores de mercado abaixo: quanto a taxa básica de juros real é negativa e quanto da dívida pública é detido pelo próprio banco central e pelos bancos do país.
  • Índice. 80% de regras + 20% de mercado quando há dados de mercado; caso contrário, apenas regras. Leis aprovadas que ainda não se aplicam entram apenas na perspectiva; propostas nunca entram.

As 9 categorias

Peso = máximo de pontos que uma categoria pode acrescentar ao pilar de regras. Intensidade = parcela desse peso preenchida pelas medidas em vigor. Abra uma categoria para ver as medidas contabilizadas; “O que é isto?” mostra os instrumentos por trás dela, no mundo e ao longo da história.

  • Peso 16Intensidade 25%Pontos 3,2

    Manutenção obrigatória de dívida pública por fundos de pensão, seguradoras ou bancos. O que é isto? →

  • Peso 16Intensidade 25%Pontos 3,2

    Compras de dívida pública pelo banco central, controle da curva de juros, financiamento monetário direto. O que é isto? →

  • 1 aprovada não contabilizadasPeso 16Intensidade 63%Pontos 8,0 → 10,4 quando as leis aprovadas passarem a se aplicar

    Limites à transferência de dinheiro para o exterior, limites a investimentos no exterior, controles cambiais. O que é isto? →

  • Peso 14Intensidade 81%Pontos 9,1

    Tetos ou limites de juros sobre depósitos ou empréstimos e taxas de juros administradas. O que é isto? →

  • Peso 10Intensidade 75%Pontos 6,0

    Regras prudenciais que favorecem a dívida soberana (ponderações de risco zero, regras de reservas de liquidez, isenções no índice de alavancagem). O que é isto? →

  • Peso 10Intensidade 75%Pontos 6,0

    Empréstimos direcionados pelo Estado, orientação do crédito e exigências de investimento no país ou em prioridades estatais. O que é isto? →

  • Peso 7Intensidade 50%Pontos 2,8

    Privilégios tributários para títulos públicos ou penalidades tributárias sobre ativos concorrentes. O que é isto? →

  • Peso 6Intensidade 25%Pontos 1,2

    Controles de aluguéis, restrições imobiliárias e limites à posse de ouro, dinheiro em espécie ou criptoativos. O que é isto? →

  • Peso 5Intensidade 50%Pontos 2,0

    Tributos sobre transações financeiras, impostos do selo e cobranças semelhantes sobre ativos não governamentais. O que é isto? →

Pilar de mercado 41,9 / 100

A média dos indicadores com dados disponíveis, com peso de 20% no índice (8,4 pontos aqui).

  • Taxa básica de juros real

    0,0 / 100

    9,8% · ago. de 2026

    Taxa básica de juros menos inflação. Uma taxa real de +2% ou mais recebe pontuação 0; −5% ou menos recebe 100; entre esses limites, a pontuação varia linearmente. Os poupadores perdem mais quando ela é muito negativa.

    Taxa básica de juros de 14% menos inflação ao consumidor de 4.223% (em doze meses), 2026-08.

    Fonte: BIS central bank policy rates; BIS consumer prices

  • Dívida detida pelo banco central e por bancos nacionais

    83,8 / 100

    50,3% of government debt · 2025-Q4

    Parcela da dívida pública detida pelo banco central do país e pelos bancos nacionais. 0% recebe pontuação 0; 60% ou mais recebe 100; entre esses limites, a pontuação varia linearmente.

    Banco central: 24.77% + bancos nacionais: 25.49% da dívida do governo geral, 2025-Q4.

    Fonte: Sovereign Debt Investor Base for Advanced Economies / for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda)

Indicadores

Dados observados de fontes internacionais, ao lado das regras acima. Juros reais abaixo de zero significam perda de poder de compra para os poupadores.

Taxa básica de juros real
9,8%
ago. de 2026
Dívida pública
93% do PIB
2025
Efeito de liquidação (est.)
Nenhuma
os juros reais são positivos
Dívida detida pelo banco central
24,8%
4º trim. de 2025
Dívida detida por bancos nacionais
25,5%
4º trim. de 2025
Dívida detida por residentes não bancários
38,5%
4º trim. de 2025
Dívida detida por não residentes
11,2%
4º trim. de 2025
Abertura da conta de capitais
0,16 de 1
2023

Taxa básica de juros, inflação e taxa real

Juros reais negativos-50510152025302005201020152020202513,89,84,2

Quem detém a dívida pública

510152025303540452005201020152020202538,525,524,811,2

O efeito de liquidação segue Reinhart e Sbrancia: com uma taxa real negativa, cerca de −(taxa real × dívida) do PIB são transferidos dos poupadores para o Estado a cada ano. O cálculo usa a taxa básica de juros, portanto deve ser tratado como uma estimativa aproximada. Fontes: BIS, BIS central bank policy rates; BIS consumer prices; IMF, IMF DataMapper: World Economic Outlook (October 2026); Fiscal Monitor (October 2026); Menzie D. Chinn and Hiro Ito, The Chinn-Ito Index (KAOPEN): a de jure measure of financial openness; IMF, Sovereign Debt Investor Base for Advanced Economies / for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda).

Medidas

Todas as medidas acompanhadas aqui, com sua base legal e fontes. Apenas medidas em vigor entram no índice.

Em vigor (14)

  • Crypto transfers abroad and self-custody transfers brought into the FX regime

    Em vigor
    Desde
    2 de fev. de 2026
    Categoria
    Controles de capitais
    Intensidade
    2 de 3

    Acrescenta 5,7 pontos ao índice

    Since 2 February 2026, international payments and transfers with crypto-assets, transfers to or from self-custodied wallets, and purchases and sales of fiat-referenced crypto-assets (stablecoins) count as foreign-exchange operations that only institutions authorised for them may carry out. Providers must identify the owners of self-custodied wallets and check where the assets come from and go, and buying or selling crypto-assets against foreign currency is banned. When the counterparty is not an institution authorised to operate in the FX market, an international crypto payment or transfer is limited to US$100,000 if handled by a crypto-asset service company and US$500,000 if handled by an FX broker or dealer. Reporting of these operations to the central bank starts with operations from 3 November 2026.

    Por que entra no cálculo: Moving savings abroad through crypto-assets now passes through the same licensed, reported FX channel as bank transfers, with a per-operation cap, closing a route around FX rules and the IOF tax.

  • Mandatory rural lending out of demand deposits (recursos obrigatórios)

    Em vigor
    Desde
    jul. de 2025
    Categoria
    Crédito direcionado
    Intensidade
    2 de 3

    Acrescenta 3,0 pontos ao índice

    Banks must lend 31.5% of their demand-deposit base (the 'recursos obrigatórios' of the Rural Credit Manual, MCR 6-2) as rural credit at controlled rates, with sub-quotas for the Pronamp and Pronaf programmes for medium and family farmers. The CMN raised the share from 30% (plus 1.5% at free rates) for the 2025-26 crop year.

    Por que entra no cálculo: A fixed slice of deposit funding is pre-committed to state-priority farm lending at regulated rates, so banks cross-subsidise these loans out of depositors' money instead of paying market returns on it.

  • IOF tax on foreign-exchange purchases and transfers abroad

    Em vigor
    Desde
    11 de jun. de 2025
    Categoria
    Tributos sobre transações
    Intensidade
    2 de 3

    Acrescenta 2,0 pontos ao índice

    Brazil's tax on financial operations (IOF) charges 3.5% on purchases of foreign cash, international card spending and prepaid travel cards, and on transfers of a resident's funds to accounts abroad; transfers abroad for investment pay 1.10%. Decree 12,499/2025 set these rates; Congress suspended it (Legislative Decree 176/2025), but an injunction of 16 July 2025 by the rapporteur in ADC 96, Justice Alexandre de Moraes, restored it except for the 'risco sacado' supplier-finance provisions; the full court has not yet ruled on the merits.

    Por que entra no cálculo: A levy on every conversion of reais into foreign currency raises the cost of moving savings out of the domestic financial system and makes foreign assets dearer than domestic ones.

  • Cap on credit-card revolving and instalment interest at 100% of the debt

    Em vigor
    Desde
    3 de jan. de 2024
    Categoria
    Tetos de juros
    Intensidade
    1 de 3

    Acrescenta 1,6 pontos ao índice

    Under the Desenrola law, total interest and charges on revolving credit-card balances and instalment plans for card bills may not exceed the original amount of the debt. The statutory cap applied because banks did not get a self-regulation approved within 90 days; the CMN regulated it in December 2023 and it took effect on 3 January 2024.

    Por que entra no cálculo: A legal ceiling on what lenders may charge on card debt lowers returns on a large consumer-credit segment, a mild administered-rate intervention.

  • Annual central-bank declaration of assets held abroad (CBE)

    Em vigor
    Desde
    31 de dez. de 2022
    Categoria
    Controles de capitais
    Intensidade
    1 de 3

    Acrescenta 2,3 pontos ao índice

    Residents whose assets abroad total US$1,000,000 or more on 31 December must file an annual declaration of Brazilian capital abroad with the central bank, and quarterly declarations once they reach US$100,000,000. Since 2 February 2026 the regime also covers crypto-assets held abroad.

    Por que entra no cálculo: Reporting with fines for non-filing makes residents' foreign savings visible to the authorities, raising the cost and lowering the privacy of holding wealth outside the domestic system.

  • Zero capital risk weight for exposures to the Union and the central bank

    Em vigor
    Desde
    12 de mai. de 2022
    Categoria
    Viés prudencial favorável à dívida soberana
    Intensidade
    2 de 3

    Acrescenta 3,0 pontos ao índice

    Under the standardised approach, banks apply a 0% risk weight to exposures to the federal government (União) and the Banco Central do Brasil. Foreign central governments get 0% only if rated AA- or better and 100% if rated from B- to below BBB-.

    Por que entra no cálculo: Federal debt needs no capital whatever its rating, while foreign sovereigns carry risk weights of 20% to 150% unless rated AA- or better, so banks' balance sheets are tilted toward domestic government bonds.

  • Pension-fund rules: unlimited federal bonds, 10% cap on foreign assets

    Em vigor
    Desde
    24 de mar. de 2022
    Categoria
    Demanda cativa
    Intensidade
    1 de 3

    Acrescenta 3,2 pontos ao índice

    Closed pension funds (EFPCs) may hold up to 100% of each plan in domestic federal government securities, while bank-issued and corporate fixed income is limited to 80% and all foreign investments together to 10% of each plan's assets. The CMN revised the rules in March 2025 (Resolution 5,202) without changing these two limits.

    Por que entra no cálculo: The asymmetric limits make domestic federal debt the only asset pension funds can hold without restriction and keep at least 90% of pension savings at home, sustaining domestic demand for government bonds.

  • Central bank FX profits can be transferred to the Treasury to pay federal debt

    Em vigor
    Desde
    jul. de 2019
    Categoria
    Financiamento pelo banco central
    Intensidade
    1 de 3

    Acrescenta 3,2 pontos ao índice

    Law 13,820/2019 parks the central bank's foreign-exchange gains in a result reserve, which, with the National Monetary Council's prior authorisation, may be used to pay the domestic federal securities debt (DPMFi) when severe liquidity restrictions significantly affect its refinancing; in August 2020 the CMN authorised the transfer of R$325 billion from this reserve to the Treasury for that purpose. The rest of the central bank's positive results must also be paid to the Treasury and used exclusively to pay the federal securities debt. The law took effect on 1 July 2019.

    Por que entra no cálculo: Valuation gains on reserves can be turned into Treasury cash to redeem bonds when markets will not roll them over, a quasi-monetary backstop for government debt outside the budget.

  • Savings deposits directed to housing credit at a 12% cost ceiling

    Em vigor
    Desde
    ago. de 2018
    Categoria
    Crédito direcionado
    Intensidade
    2 de 3

    Acrescenta 3,0 pontos ao índice

    Banks in the savings and loan system (SBPE) must apply at least 65% of savings deposits to real-estate financing, at least 80% of which in residential loans, mainly under the Housing Finance System (SFH), whose total cost to the borrower is capped at 12% a year. Under CMN Resolution 5,255 of October 2025, from 1 January 2027 the requirement rises to 100% of savings deposits and new interbank real-estate deposits, net of the savings reserve requirement held at the central bank, which is to be gradually released into housing credit. Banks have asked for a postponement; as of September 2026 no CMN resolution had changed the 2027 date.

    Por que entra no cálculo: Savers' deposits, which earn an administered return, are pre-committed to subsidised housing loans, so the low deposit rate funds below-market mortgages instead of rewarding savers.

  • Federal government securities count as Level 1 liquid assets in the LCR

    Em vigor
    Desde
    5 de mar. de 2015
    Categoria
    Viés prudencial favorável à dívida soberana
    Intensidade
    2 de 3

    Acrescenta 3,0 pontos ao índice

    In the Liquidity Coverage Ratio, Brazilian federal government securities accepted by the central bank in intraday rediscount operations count as Level 1 high-quality liquid assets alongside cash and central-bank reserves, with no cap or weighting factor, unlike Level 2 assets, which are capped at 40% of the buffer. Foreign government securities qualify for Level 1 only if rated AA- or better (or up to local-currency outflows of subsidiaries abroad). New LCR minimums apply from 1 January 2027 (CMN Resolution 5,296/2026); the central bank has yet to reissue the calculation rules.

    Por que entra no cálculo: Large banks must hold a buffer of liquid assets, and federal bonds are the main eligible asset, which creates steady regulatory demand for government debt.

  • Administered return on savings deposits (poupança)

    Em vigor
    Desde
    mai. de 2012
    Categoria
    Tetos de juros
    Intensidade
    2 de 3

    Acrescenta 3,8 pontos ao índice

    By law, savings deposits (cadernetas de poupança) earn the reference rate TR plus 0.5% a month while the Selic target is above 8.5% a year, or TR plus 70% of the Selic target otherwise. Their income is exempt from personal income tax.

    Por que entra no cálculo: The legal formula caps the return on the most widely held savings product well below the policy rate whenever Selic is high, while the funds are channelled into regulated housing credit; the tax exemption keeps savers in the product.

  • Income-tax exemption for savings deposits, housing and farm notes, and infrastructure debentures

    Em vigor
    Desde
    dez. de 2004
    Categoria
    Incentivos fiscais
    Intensidade
    2 de 3

    Acrescenta 2,8 pontos ao índice

    Individuals pay no income tax on savings-deposit (poupança) income or on real-estate and agribusiness notes and receivables (LH, LCI, CRI, CDA, WA, CDCA, LCA, CRA); infrastructure and priority-project debentures issued up to 31 December 2030 pay 0% for individuals. Other fixed-income investments are taxed at 22.5% to 15% depending on holding period. Provisional Measure 1,303/2025, which would have taxed real-estate and farm notes at 5%, lapsed on 8 October 2025.

    Por que entra no cálculo: Exemptions are reserved for instruments whose proceeds must fund housing, agriculture or state-priority infrastructure, steering household savings into credit the state wants to subsidise and away from untargeted investments.

  • FGTS: compulsory workers' fund paid TR plus 3%, floored at inflation

    Em vigor
    Desde
    11 de mai. de 1990
    Categoria
    Tetos de juros
    Intensidade
    2 de 3

    Acrescenta 3,8 pontos ao índice

    Employers must pay 8% of each worker's pay into an FGTS account, whose balance is credited with the savings-deposit adjustment (TR) plus 3% a year interest and a share of the fund's profits. In June 2024 the Supreme Court (ADI 5090) kept this formula but ruled that balances must be corrected at least by IPCA inflation, with the fund's Board of Trustees compensating any shortfall.

    Por que entra no cálculo: A large pool of mandatory worker savings earns an administered return of TR plus 3% a year, floored at inflation only since the 2024 ruling, and is lent out by law for housing, sanitation and urban infrastructure; the floor protects against negative real returns but not against the gap to market yields.

  • Limits on rural land purchases by foreigners and foreign-controlled companies

    Em vigor
    Desde
    7 de out. de 1971
    Categoria
    Restrições a ativos reais
    Intensidade
    1 de 3

    Acrescenta 1,2 pontos ao índice

    A foreign individual may not acquire more than 50 modules of rural land, and land owned by foreigners may not exceed a quarter of any municipality's area (40% of that share for any one nationality); larger purchases need authorisation. The law also applies to Brazilian companies majority-owned by foreigners, an interpretation restored by a 2010 Attorney-General opinion and upheld unanimously by the Supreme Court on 23 April 2026 (ADPF 342 and ACO 2,463).

    Por que entra no cálculo: Caps and approvals on foreign ownership narrow the pool of buyers for farmland, a property curb that keeps rural land in domestic hands.

Aprovada, ainda não em vigor (1)

  • Crypto platforms need central-bank authorisation; banks barred from dealing with unauthorised ones

    Aprovada, ainda não em vigor
    Desde
    10 de nov. de 2025
    Categoria
    Controles de capitais
    Intensidade
    2 de 3

    Conta apenas na perspectiva: acrescenta 4,3 pontos quando passar a se aplicar

    Since 2 February 2026 crypto-asset service providers in Brazil need central-bank authorisation (SPSAVs, or authorised banks and brokers); firms already operating had 270 days to apply and may continue meanwhile, and foreign entities already serving Brazilian clients had 270 days to transfer their operations and clients to an authorised institution. From 6 November 2026, financial and payment institutions may not carry out or enable crypto-asset operations whose counterparties are unauthorised providers.

    Por que entra no cálculo: Cutting the banking and payment rails to unlicensed and offshore platforms confines residents' crypto holdings to supervised domestic providers, which report to the central bank and fall under the FX rules.

Antes de hoje

6 exemplos de Brazil no conjunto de instrumentos, do passado e do presente, agrupados conforme a função do instrumento. Cada um inclui links para o instrumento, seus outros exemplos e a lei citada.

ContenhaContenha o preço do dinheiro

BloqueieBloqueie as saídas

ReescrevaReescreva o acordo em uma crise