Financial Repression Tracker

Rules that steer savings into government debt or hold returns below inflation, country by country.

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Turkey

Turkey steers savings toward government debt through pension allocation rules, favourable bank capital treatment and tax relief, while foreign-exchange controls and selective credit rules support lira assets and state priorities. The bank securities-maintenance mandate and the restriction on lira borrowing by firms holding substantial foreign currency have been repealed, but other targeted controls remain.

Repression index
50.7 / 100
  • 12 in force
  • 0 enacted
  • 0 proposed or under discussion

Measures as of

How the index is built

Each segment is what one category of rules, or the market pillar, adds to the index. The full bar is 100.

  • Captive demand 6.4
  • Central bank financing 3.2
  • Capital controls 12.2
  • Rate caps 2.8
  • Prudential sovereign bias 4.0
  • Directed credit 6.0
  • Tax incentives 2.8
  • Real asset restrictions 2.4
  • Transaction taxes 1.0
  • Market pillar 9.9

Index = 80% × rules (51.0) + 20% × market (49.5) = 50.7

The method in plain words
  • Rules pillar (0–100). Each of the 9 categories can add up to its weight (the weights sum to 100). A category's intensity grows with every in-force measure in it: one measure counts by its severity factor (0.25 for severity 1, 0.5 for 2, 0.8 for 3), and each further measure closes part of the remaining gap, so breadth adds with diminishing returns: two severity-3 measures give 96%.
  • Market pillar (0–100). The average of the market readings below: how negative the real policy rate is, and how much of the government's debt is held by its own central bank and banks.
  • Index. 80% rules + 20% market when market data exists, otherwise rules alone. Laws passed but not yet applying count only in the outlook; proposals never count.

The 9 categories

Weight = the most points a category can add to the rules pillar. Intensity = how much of that weight the in-force measures fill. Open a category to see the measures counted; “What is this?” shows the instruments behind it, worldwide and in history.

  • Weight 16Intensity 50%Points 6.4

    Mandated holdings of government debt by pension funds, insurers or banks. What is this? →

  • Weight 16Intensity 25%Points 3.2

    Central bank purchases of government debt, yield curve control, direct monetary financing. What is this? →

  • Weight 16Intensity 95%Points 12.2

    Limits on moving money abroad, outbound investment limits, FX controls. What is this? →

  • Weight 14Intensity 25%Points 2.8

    Caps or ceilings on deposit or lending rates, and administered interest rates. What is this? →

  • Weight 10Intensity 50%Points 4.0

    Prudential rules that favor sovereign debt (zero risk weights, liquidity-buffer rules, leverage-ratio exemptions). What is this? →

  • Weight 10Intensity 75%Points 6.0

    State-directed lending, credit guidance, and mandates to invest domestically or in state priorities. What is this? →

  • Weight 7Intensity 50%Points 2.8

    Tax privileges for government bonds, or tax penalties on competing assets. What is this? →

  • Weight 6Intensity 50%Points 2.4

    Rent controls, property curbs, and limits on owning gold, cash or crypto. What is this? →

  • Weight 5Intensity 25%Points 1.0

    Financial transaction taxes, stamp duties and similar levies on non-government assets. What is this? →

Market pillar 49.5 / 100

The average of the readings that have data, worth 20% of the index (9.9 points here).

Indicators

Measured data from international sources, alongside the rules above. Real rates below zero mean savers lose purchasing power.

Real policy rate
5.5%
Aug 2026
Government debt
24% of GDP
2025
Liquidation effect (est.)
None
real rates are positive
Debt held by central bank
3.7%
Q4 2025
Debt held by domestic banks
55.7%
Q4 2025
Debt held by domestic non-banks
22.1%
Q4 2025
Debt held by foreign holders
18.5%
Q4 2025
Capital account openness
0.16 of 1
2023

Policy rate, inflation and real rate

Negative real rates-100-500501002005201020152020202537.031.55.5

Who holds government debt

0102030405060702005201020152020202555.722.118.53.7

The liquidation effect follows Reinhart and Sbrancia: with a negative real rate, about −(real rate × debt) of GDP moves from savers to the state each year. It uses the policy rate, so treat it as a rough guide. Sources: BIS, BIS central bank policy rates; BIS consumer prices; IMF, IMF DataMapper: World Economic Outlook (October 2026); Fiscal Monitor (October 2026); Menzie D. Chinn and Hiro Ito, The Chinn-Ito Index (KAOPEN): a de jure measure of financial openness; IMF, Sovereign Debt Investor Base for Advanced Economies / for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda).

Measures

Every measure tracked here, with its legal basis and sources. Only in-force measures count in the index.

In force (12)

  • 48/72-hour withdrawal holds and stablecoin transfer caps on crypto platforms

    In force
    Since
    Jun 28, 2025
    Category
    Capital controls
    Severity
    2 of 3

    Adds 2.8 points to the index

    A MASAK communiqué (General Communiqué No. 29) in force since 28 June 2025 requires platforms to wait at least 48 hours after the crypto was bought, swapped or deposited before executing withdrawals to wallets not registered with any provider, or to foreign providers with no duty to share sender/recipient data (Article 24/A(6)-(7) of the AML Measures Regulation), and at least 72 hours for a customer's first such withdrawal. All withdrawals of stablecoins, including to other platforms, are capped at USD 3,000 a day and USD 50,000 a month; the caps may be doubled where full Travel-Rule sender data under Article 24/A(1) is exchanged. Every crypto transfer needs a customer explanation of at least 20 characters. Platforms may exempt verified liquidity-provision, market-making or arbitrage customers with board approval given customer by customer.

    Why it counts: Holds and hard USD caps on moving stablecoins and other crypto off domestic platforms throttle the lira-to-dollar-stablecoin-to-self-custody/offshore route that savers use to escape the lira and FX controls.

  • Central-bank purchases for the government securities portfolio

    In force
    Since
    2025
    Category
    Central bank financing
    Severity
    1 of 3

    Adds 3.2 points to the index

    The central bank conducts outright purchases of domestic government debt and Treasury lease certificates for its open-market operations portfolio; it added about TRY 124 billion of such securities through outright purchases in the first four months of 2025. Its announced 2026 portfolio target is TRY 450 billion in nominal value, and 2026 purchases began in January.

    Why it counts: Purchases add an official buyer for government debt and can support its price. The stated purpose is liquidity management, and the central bank found negligible market-price effects in its early assessment.

  • SPK licensing of crypto platforms and ban on foreign platforms serving residents

    In force
    Since
    Jul 2, 2024
    Category
    Capital controls
    Severity
    3 of 3

    Adds 6.5 points to the index

    Law No. 7518, published and in force on 2 July 2024, amended the Capital Markets Law so that crypto-asset service providers need a licence from the Capital Markets Board (SPK) and may only carry out activities the Board permits. Foreign platforms targeting Turkish residents (e.g. via a Turkish-language website, a local office or local marketing) are treated as unlicensed and had to stop such activity within three months; unlicensed activity carries 3-5 years' imprisonment. Crypto ATMs in Türkiye had to stop operating within three months.

    Why it counts: Residents are channelled to domestic licensed platforms that sit inside Turkish supervision, KYC and lira banking, and lose legal access to offshore exchanges that offer an easier route out of the lira and away from domestic reporting.

  • Loan-growth controls with preferred-sector exemptions

    In force
    Since
    Mar 2024
    Category
    Directed credit
    Severity
    2 of 3

    Adds 3.0 points to the index

    The central bank applies reserve requirements linked to loan-growth limits, differentiated by loan type, with exemptions for some loan classes, such as loans to tradesmen. The exemption for earthquake-zone loans was withdrawn in March 2026.

    Why it counts: Making non-preferred loan growth more costly directs bank funding toward favoured sectors and can make government securities more attractive than constrained private lending.

  • Central-bank credit for strategic domestic investment

    In force
    Since
    Nov 23, 2023
    Category
    Directed credit
    Severity
    2 of 3

    Adds 3.0 points to the index

    The restructured investment-commitment advance-loan programme channels central-bank funding through banks to projects assessed against technology and strategy criteria. Its total programme limit was raised to TRY 750 billion, with TRY 150 billion allocated to 2026.

    Why it counts: The programme directs financing toward state-selected domestic investments on administered terms, reducing the role of market pricing in allocating credit.

  • Government securities floor for pension state-contribution funds

    In force
    Since
    Feb 14, 2023
    Category
    Captive demand
    Severity
    2 of 3

    Adds 6.4 points to the index

    Funds investing cash state contributions to private pensions must place at least 50% in lira-denominated Treasury debt, revenue-sharing securities or Treasury lease certificates. This requirement applies to the state-contribution portfolio, rather than all participants' pension savings.

    Why it counts: The allocation floor creates a captive pool of pension assets for government financing and limits diversification of the state-funded portion.

  • Compulsory conversion of export proceeds

    In force
    Since
    Jan 3, 2022
    Category
    Capital controls
    Severity
    2 of 3

    Adds 2.8 points to the index

    Exporters must sell the prescribed share of foreign-currency export proceeds covered by export acceptance or currency purchase certificates to their bank for onward sale to the central bank. Conversion takes place at the official transaction exchange rate under the export circular and its implementation instructions.

    Why it counts: Mandatory conversion reduces exporters' ability to retain foreign-currency earnings and channels funds into lira balances and central-bank reserves.

  • Zero withholding tax on qualifying government securities

    In force
    Since
    Dec 22, 2021
    Category
    Tax incentives
    Severity
    2 of 3

    Adds 2.8 points to the index

    Qualifying domestic Treasury bonds, Treasury bills and Treasury lease certificates acquired within the relief window receive a 0% withholding rate on income and gains. The acquisition deadline has been extended to 31 December 2026; the relief does not cover overseas-issued Eurobonds under this withholding regime.

    Why it counts: The tax preference increases government securities' after-tax returns relative to taxable deposits and many private debt instruments, encouraging savings to finance the state.

  • Ban on crypto-asset payments

    In force
    Since
    Apr 30, 2021
    Category
    Real asset restrictions
    Severity
    2 of 3

    Adds 2.4 points to the index

    Under a central-bank regulation published on 16 April 2021 and in force from 30 April 2021, crypto assets may not be used directly or indirectly in payments, and no service may be offered for their use in payments. Payment service providers may not build business models using crypto assets, and payment and electronic-money institutions may not intermediate fund transfers to or from crypto trading, custody, transfer or issuance platforms. The regulation does not itself prohibit owning crypto.

    Why it counts: By cutting crypto off from payments and from the e-money/payment-institution rails, the rule stops bitcoin or stablecoins from functioning as a parallel currency to the lira and narrows on- and off-ramps to the bank-account channel.

  • Interest-rate ceilings on credit cards and overdrafts

    In force
    Since
    Nov 2020
    Category
    Rate caps
    Severity
    1 of 3

    Adds 2.8 points to the index

    The central bank sets maximum contractual and overdue interest rates for credit cards using a reference-rate formula. Overdraft rates are also subject to central-bank ceilings, and banks may charge less than the maximum.

    Why it counts: Capping returns on these loans can constrain what banks are willing to pay depositors, although the rule does not directly cap deposit rates.

  • Tax on foreign-currency purchases

    In force
    Since
    Sep 30, 2020
    Category
    Transaction taxes
    Severity
    1 of 3

    Adds 1.0 points to the index

    Foreign-currency purchases generally incur banking and insurance transaction tax of 0.2% of the currency sale amount.

    Why it counts: The tax raises the cost of switching savings from lira into foreign currency, favouring domestic-currency deposits and securities.

  • Zero capital risk weight for lira sovereign exposures

    In force
    Since
    Mar 31, 2016
    Category
    Prudential sovereign bias
    Severity
    2 of 3

    Adds 4.0 points to the index

    Bank capital rules assign a 0% credit-risk weight to claims on the central government and central bank denominated and funded in Turkish lira.

    Why it counts: Banks can hold qualifying government debt without the credit-risk capital charge attached to ordinary private lending, making sovereign assets cheaper to hold.

Repealed (3)

  • Withdrawn 2026 proposal: 0.03% crypto transaction tax and 10% withholding on platform gains

    Repealed
    Since
    Mar 2, 2026
    Category
    Transaction taxes
    Severity
    2 of 3

    Not counted in the index

    Bill 2/3560, submitted to parliament on 2 March 2026, would have levied a crypto-asset transaction tax of three per ten thousand (0.03%) on sales and transfers made or intermediated by crypto service providers, with the President able to cut it to zero or raise it up to fivefold, plus a 10% quarterly withholding tax on gains and income from licensed platforms (losses offset only within the calendar year). In the plenary on 26 March 2026 the crypto articles (1, 3, 4 and 5) were removed from the bill; the governing party said they would be reconsidered and might return in another bill. The bill was enacted as Law No. 7577 (Resmî Gazete 17 April 2026) with no crypto provisions, and no new bill had been found as of 16 October 2026. The crypto tax is therefore not in force.

    Why it counts: A levy on every sale and transfer (not just gains) taxes moving out of lira into crypto and back regardless of profit, while platform withholding would make domestic crypto gains taxable at source; the transfer leg would also tax moving coins to self-custody or other platforms.

  • Bank securities-maintenance mandate

    Repealed
    Since
    Jul 29, 2022
    Category
    Captive demand
    Severity
    3 of 3

    Not counted in the index

    Banks had to maintain long-term lira securities against foreign-currency deposits, with additional requirements linked to deposit conversion, loan growth and lending rates. The framework forced holdings of government securities and was fully abolished on 9 May 2024.

    Why it counts: The mandate created compulsory demand for government bonds and penalised banks that expanded non-preferred lending or charged higher loan rates.

  • Lira loan restriction for firms holding foreign-currency assets

    Repealed
    Since
    Jun 24, 2022
    Category
    Capital controls
    Severity
    2 of 3

    Not counted in the index

    Independently audited companies were restricted from obtaining new lira cash commercial loans when their foreign-currency cash assets exceeded regulatory thresholds relative to their balance sheet or sales. The banking regulator repealed the restriction on 6 February 2025.

    Why it counts: The rule pressured affected firms to reduce foreign-currency holdings to regain access to domestic credit, helping keep corporate liquidity in lira.

Before today

3 examples from Turkey in the toolkit, past and present, grouped by what the tool does. Each links to the instrument, its other examples and the cited law.

SteerSteer savings to the state

BlockBlock the exits

Further reading

  • Financial engineering is no substitute for interest rates: Lessons from Türkiye

    Kara, Simsek · CEPR, 2026

    Examines Türkiye’s 2021–2023 combination of low policy rates, foreign-exchange intervention, protected deposits and financial restrictions. These measures temporarily stabilized deposits but shifted currency risk to the government, raising fiscal vulnerability and the eventual cost of policy normalization.

  • Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt

    Arslanalp, Tsuda · IMF, 2014

    Extends sovereign investor-base measurement to emerging markets, separating domestic banks, nonbanks and central banks from foreign holders. It documents post-crisis foreign inflows and country differences in banks’ government-debt exposure, useful for evaluating funding dependence and potential captive demand.