Thailand
Thailand's financial repression runs mainly through state banks and fiscal channels rather than open monetary financing: the government has state-owned banks such as BAAC run programmes it repays later under Section 28 of the fiscal discipline law, with arrears of THB 1,133,751 million (30.21% of the budget, against a 32% ceiling) at the end of fiscal 2025, and savings lotteries and savings deposits at these banks earn tax-free returns. Banks pay a levy of 0.46% a year on deposits to repay the FIDF's crisis losses, hold baht government debt at a 0% risk weight, and the Social Security Fund must keep at least 60% in high-security assets. Exchange controls are being eased to weaken the baht, with the repatriation threshold raised to USD 10 million in January 2026, but direct retail investment abroad is capped at USD 5 million a year and online gold trades settled in baht are capped at THB 50 million a day. Crypto is kept onshore: unlicensed foreign exchanges were blocked in 2025, crypto payments are banned, and gains are tax-exempt only on Thai-licensed venues until 2029.
- 12 in force
- 0 enacted
- 0 proposed or under discussion
Measures as of
How the index is built
Each segment is what one category of rules, or the market pillar, adds to the index. The full bar is 100.
- Captive demand 3.2
- Central bank financing 0.0
- Capital controls 9.2
- Rate caps 2.8
- Prudential sovereign bias 4.0
- Directed credit 4.0
- Tax incentives 2.5
- Real asset restrictions 2.1
- Transaction taxes 2.0
- Market pillar 13.9
Index = 80% × rules (37.2) + 20% × market (69.4) = 43.6
The method in plain words
- Rules pillar (0–100). Each of the 9 categories can add up to its weight (the weights sum to 100). A category's intensity grows with every in-force measure in it: one measure counts by its severity factor (0.25 for severity 1, 0.5 for 2, 0.8 for 3), and each further measure closes part of the remaining gap, so breadth adds with diminishing returns: two severity-3 measures give 96%.
- Market pillar (0–100). The average of the market readings below: how negative the real policy rate is, and how much of the government's debt is held by its own central bank and banks.
- Index. 80% rules + 20% market when market data exists, otherwise rules alone. Laws passed but not yet applying count only in the outlook; proposals never count.
The 9 categories
Weight = the most points a category can add to the rules pillar. Intensity = how much of that weight the in-force measures fill. Open a category to see the measures counted; “What is this?” shows the instruments behind it, worldwide and in history.
- Weight 16Intensity 25%Points 3.2
Mandated holdings of government debt by pension funds, insurers or banks. What is this? →
Captive demand: measures counted in the index Measure counted Severity Factor Points 1 of 3 0.25 3.2 - Central bank financingWeight 16Intensity 0%Points 0.0
Central bank purchases of government debt, yield curve control, direct monetary financing. No in-force measures here. What is this? →
- Weight 16Intensity 72%Points 9.2
Limits on moving money abroad, outbound investment limits, FX controls. What is this? →
Capital controls: measures counted in the index Measure counted Severity Factor Points 2 of 3 0.5 5.0 1 of 3 0.25 2.1 1 of 3 0.25 2.1 - Weight 14Intensity 25%Points 2.8
Caps or ceilings on deposit or lending rates, and administered interest rates. What is this? →
Rate caps: measures counted in the index Measure counted Severity Factor Points 1 of 3 0.25 2.8 - Weight 10Intensity 50%Points 4.0
Prudential rules that favor sovereign debt (zero risk weights, liquidity-buffer rules, leverage-ratio exemptions). What is this? →
Prudential sovereign bias: measures counted in the index Measure counted Severity Factor Points 2 of 3 0.5 4.0 - Weight 10Intensity 50%Points 4.0
State-directed lending, credit guidance, and mandates to invest domestically or in state priorities. What is this? →
Directed credit: measures counted in the index Measure counted Severity Factor Points 2 of 3 0.5 4.0 - Weight 7Intensity 44%Points 2.5
Tax privileges for government bonds, or tax penalties on competing assets. What is this? →
Tax incentives: measures counted in the index Measure counted Severity Factor Points 1 of 3 0.25 1.2 1 of 3 0.25 1.2 - Weight 6Intensity 44%Points 2.1
Rent controls, property curbs, and limits on owning gold, cash or crypto. What is this? →
Real asset restrictions: measures counted in the index Measure counted Severity Factor Points 1 of 3 0.25 1.1 1 of 3 0.25 1.1 - Weight 5Intensity 50%Points 2.0
Financial transaction taxes, stamp duties and similar levies on non-government assets. What is this? →
Transaction taxes: measures counted in the index Measure counted Severity Factor Points 2 of 3 0.5 2.0
Market pillar 69.4 / 100
The average of the readings that have data, worth 20% of the index (13.9 points here).
Real policy rate
50.1 / 100-1.5% · Aug 2026
Policy rate minus inflation. A real rate of +2% or more scores 0; −5% or less scores 100; in between it scales in a straight line. Savers lose most when it is deeply negative.
Policy rate 1% minus consumer price inflation 2.506% (year on year), 2026-08.
Debt held by the central bank and domestic banks
88.7 / 10053.2% of government debt · 2025-Q4
Share of government debt held by the domestic central bank and domestic banks. 0% scores 0; 60% or more scores 100; in between it scales in a straight line.
Central bank 4.08% + domestic banks 49.16% of general government debt, 2025-Q4.
Indicators
Measured data from international sources, alongside the rules above. Real rates below zero mean savers lose purchasing power.
Policy rate, inflation and real rate
Who holds government debt
The liquidation effect follows Reinhart and Sbrancia: with a negative real rate, about −(real rate × debt) of GDP moves from savers to the state each year. It uses the policy rate, so treat it as a rough guide. Sources: BIS, BIS central bank policy rates; BIS consumer prices; IMF, IMF DataMapper: World Economic Outlook (October 2026); Fiscal Monitor (October 2026); Menzie D. Chinn and Hiro Ito, The Chinn-Ito Index (KAOPEN): a de jure measure of financial openness; IMF, Sovereign Debt Investor Base for Advanced Economies / for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda).
Measures
Every measure tracked here, with its legal basis and sources. Only in-force measures count in the index.
In force (12)
Cap of THB 50 million a day on baht-settled online gold trades
Adds 1.1 points to the index
From 1 March 2026, purchases or sales of gold on online platforms settled in baht are capped at THB 50 million per side, per person, per day, per platform; larger trades need approval from the exchange control officer. All platform trades must be paid electronically from the client's own account, in full (no net settlement) and without short selling. Dollar-settled trades, gold shops, buy-only savings platforms and TFEX are excluded.
Why it counts: The cap and settlement rules limit large-scale use of gold as a liquid savings and speculative asset in baht; the stated aim is to curb baht volatility caused by gold-related FX flows.
Legal basis Notification of the Competent Officer on Exchange Control re: rules and procedures for currency exchange (No. 37), Clause 1 (new clause 47/5 of Part 9); Clause 3 and 1 more
Notification of the Competent Officer on Exchange Control re: rules and procedures for currency exchange (No. 37), Clause 1 (new clause 47/5 of Part 9); Clause 3Primary source
“ด้านขายแต่ละด้านต้องไม่เกิน ๕๐ ล้านบาทต่อวันต่อรายผู้ทำธุรกรรมต่อระบบให้บริการทางอิเล็กทรอนิกส์”
Bank of Thailand press release on limits for baht-settled gold trading on platformsPrimary source
“กำหนดวงเงินการซื้อหรือขายทองคำ ไม่เกินด้านละ 50 ล้านบาท/คน/แพลตฟอร์ม บนแพลตฟอร์มที่ชำระเป็นสกุลบาทเท่านั้น”
Repatriation of foreign-currency income above USD 10 million
Adds 2.1 points to the index
Residents who receive foreign currency from abroad must bring it back within 360 days and sell it to an authorised bank or deposit it in a foreign-currency account with an authorised bank in Thailand, unless the amount is below a threshold. In January 2026 the threshold was raised from USD 1 million to USD 10 million per transaction, both for export proceeds (Ministry of Finance exchange-control notification No. 11, in force 20 January 2026) and for other foreign income (Competent Officer notification No. 35); it had been USD 200,000 until March 2020.
Why it counts: Large export and other foreign earnings cannot be kept offshore indefinitely, which keeps residents' foreign-currency savings inside the Thai banking system; successive increases in the threshold have made the rule narrow.
Legal basis Bank of Thailand announcement of the relaxed repatriation rule (exchange control rule published in the Royal Gazette on 19 January 2026) and 1 more
Bank of Thailand announcement of the relaxed repatriation rule (exchange control rule published in the Royal Gazette on 19 January 2026)Primary source
“โดยได้ขยายวงเงินรายได้ต่างประเทศของคนไทยและผู้ประกอบการไทยที่ไม่ต้องนำกลับเข้าประเทศเป็น 10 ล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ ต่อครั้ง (จากเดิมที่กำหนดไว้ไม่เกิน 1 ล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ ต่อครั้ง)”
Bank of Thailand summary of exchange control regulation (Exchange Control Act B.E. 2485 and rules under it), Section 2.1 InflowPrimary source
“is required to repatriate such funds immediately within 360 days from the export date or the transaction date, and sell to an authorized bank or deposit them in a foreign currency account with an authorized bank”
Blocking of unlicensed foreign crypto exchanges and BOT approval for crypto payments abroad
Adds 5.0 points to the index
Only SEC-licensed digital asset businesses may serve Thai residents. In June 2025 the SEC asked the digital economy ministry to block unlicensed platforms, and Bybit, 1000X, CoinEx, OKX and XT.COM were blocked from 28 June 2025. Under exchange control rules, foreign currency may be bought to pay non-residents for digital assets only by mutual funds and private funds; other residents need prior approval from the Bank of Thailand's exchange control officer.
Why it counts: Residents cannot freely move baht or foreign currency to offshore crypto venues, so crypto savings stay on domestic licensed platforms inside the Thai regulatory and tax net.
Legal basis SEC statement on actions taken against unlicensed digital asset businesses and 1 more
SEC statement on actions taken against unlicensed digital asset businessesPrimary source
“in June 2025, the SEC submitted information on unauthorized digital asset trading platforms to the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society (MDES) to proceed with blocking access to such unauthorized platforms”
Notification of the Competent Officer on Rules and Practices regarding Currency Exchange (Bank of Thailand consolidation, updated to No. 37), Clause 16(6) (as amended by Competent Officer notification No. 34) read with clause 14(2), BOT consolidation updated to No. 37, page 17Primary source
“การส่งเงินเพื่อชำระค่าสินทรัพย์ดิจิทัลและค่าใช้จ่ายที่เกี่ยวข้องกับการชำระค่าสินทรัพย์ดิจิทัลให้แก่บุคคลที่มีถิ่นที่อยู่นอกประเทศ ต้องเป็นการชำระเงินโดยกองทุนรวมหรือกองทุนส่วนบุคคล”
Crypto gains tax-exempt only on Thai-licensed exchanges, brokers and dealers (2025-2029)
Adds 1.2 points to the index
Ministerial Regulation No. 399 (published 5 September 2025) exempts from personal income tax gains on transfers of cryptocurrencies or digital tokens made on, through or to Thai-licensed digital asset exchanges, brokers and dealers, for income received from 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2029. Gains realised elsewhere, including on foreign platforms, get no such exemption.
Why it counts: A tax wedge in favour of domestic licensed venues pulls crypto savings onshore, where they are supervised and cannot easily leave, and penalises use of offshore platforms.
Legal basis Ministerial Regulation No. 399 (B.E. 2568) issued under the Revenue Code governing tax exemptions (adds item 109 to clause 2 of Ministerial Regulation No. 126), Item (109) of clause 2 of Ministerial Regulation No. 126
Ministerial Regulation No. 399 (B.E. 2568) issued under the Revenue Code governing tax exemptions (adds item 109 to clause 2 of Ministerial Regulation No. 126), Item (109) of clause 2 of Ministerial Regulation No. 126Primary source
“ผลประโยชน์ที่ได้รับจากการโอนคริปโทเคอร์เรนซีหรือโทเคนดิจิทัลที่ได้กระทำในศูนย์ซื้อขายสินทรัพย์ดิจิทัล กระทำผ่านนายหน้าซื้อขายสินทรัพย์ดิจิทัล หรือที่ได้โอนให้แก่ผู้ค้าสินทรัพย์ดิจิทัล ที่ได้รับอนุญาตตามกฎหมายว่าด้วยการประกอบธุรกิจสินทรัพย์ดิจิทัล”
Ban on crypto businesses facilitating payments in digital assets
Adds 1.1 points to the index
Since 1 April 2022, licensed digital asset businesses may not offer or promote the use of cryptocurrencies or digital tokens as a means of payment for goods and services, and must warn and suspend clients who use trading accounts for payments.
Why it counts: Crypto is confined to an investment asset and cannot develop into a parallel means of payment that would let savers bypass the baht and the domestic banking system.
Legal basis SEC Notification KorThor. 5/2565 (regulations on services of digital asset business operators not supporting the use of digital assets as a means of payment), as announced by the SEC
SEC Notification KorThor. 5/2565 (regulations on services of digital asset business operators not supporting the use of digital assets as a means of payment), as announced by the SECPrimary source
“Digital asset business operators of all types are prohibited from providing services or acting in any manners of supporting or promoting the use of digital assets as a means of payment for goods and services”
Interest-rate ceilings on credit cards (16%) and personal loans (25%)
Adds 2.8 points to the index
Interest, fees and penalties on credit cards may not exceed 16% a year (effective rate) under BOT Notification SorNorSor. 11/2563, and on regulated unsecured personal loans 25% a year on a reducing-balance basis.
Why it counts: Administered ceilings hold down the price of consumer credit; they mainly shift returns from lenders to borrowers rather than taxing savers directly.
Legal basis Bank of Thailand handbook on credit card business, citing BOT Notification SorNorSor. 11/2563 and 1 more
Bank of Thailand handbook on credit card business, citing BOT Notification SorNorSor. 11/2563Primary source
“หรือเบี้ยปรับ ทุกประเภท ต้องไม่เกิน 16% ต่อปี (effective rate)”
Bank of Thailand consumer guidance on regulated personal loansPrimary source
“ซึ่งการคิดดอกเบี้ยสินเชื่อส่วนบุคคลภายใต้การกำกับจะคิดค่าดอกเบี้ยและค่าธรรมเนียมสูงสุดได้ไม่เกิน 25% ต่อปีและเป็นแบบลดต้นลดดอก”
Limits on residents' direct portfolio investment, gifts and banknotes taken abroad
Adds 2.1 points to the index
Thai individuals and non-institutional firms may send at most USD 5 million per person per year abroad for portfolio investment made directly rather than through onshore agents (investment through Thai securities firms, banks and funds is unlimited but subject to SEC rules). Gifts to persons abroad are capped at USD 200,000 per person per year (USD 50,000 before an amendment in force from late 2025), and baht banknotes taken out of the country are limited to THB 50,000 (THB 2 million to neighbouring countries, Vietnam and Yunnan).
Why it counts: Direct exit by retail savers is capped and channelled through domestic intermediaries that the authorities supervise, which keeps most resident savings onshore or under Thai control.
Legal basis Notification of the Competent Officer on Rules and Practices regarding Currency Exchange (Bank of Thailand consolidation, updated to No. 37), Clause 20/4(1)(b)2 (as amended by Competent Officer notification No. 35), page 24 of the BOT consolidation updated to No. 37 and 1 more
Notification of the Competent Officer on Rules and Practices regarding Currency Exchange (Bank of Thailand consolidation, updated to No. 37), Clause 20/4(1)(b)2 (as amended by Competent Officer notification No. 35), page 24 of the BOT consolidation updated to No. 37Primary source
“กรณีชำระเงินให้แก่บุคคลที่มีถิ่นที่อยู่นอกประเทศ โดยไม่ผ่านตัวแทนการลงทุน ให้ดำเนินการได้เป็นจำนวนรวมไม่เกินปีละ ๕ ล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐอเมริกาหรือเทียบเท่าตามอัตราตลาดต่อราย”
Notification of the Ministry of Finance on Exchange Control dated 31 March 2004 (consolidation updated to No. 12, published by the Bank of Thailand), Clause 2(4) (as amended by MoF exchange-control notification No. 10), MoF Notification on Exchange Control of 31 March 2004, consolidated to No. 12Primary source
“การส่งหรือนำเงินตราออกนอกประเทศนอกจากกรณีที่กำหนดใน (๑) และ (๒) ในจำนวนไม่เกินห้าหมื่นบาท”
Quasi-fiscal programmes run through state banks (Section 28, ceiling 32% of the budget)
Adds 4.0 points to the index
Under Section 28 of the State Fiscal and Financial Disciplines Act 2018, the cabinet can entrust state agencies, mainly the state-owned specialised financial institutions, with programmes whose costs or lost revenue the government repays later. The outstanding amount owed must not exceed 32% of the annual budget (from 3 October 2022). At the end of fiscal 2025 it stood at THB 1,133,751 million, 30.21% of the budget, of which THB 826,862 million was owed to the agricultural bank BAAC.
Why it counts: State banks lend or pay out on government instructions using depositors' money and are repaid from future budgets, an off-budget channel that directs savings to state priorities.
Legal basis Notification of the State Fiscal and Financial Policy Committee on the rate of compensation of expenses or lost revenue of state agencies under Section 28, B.E. 2565 (Royal Gazette vol. 139, special part 233 Ng), Clause 2 and 1 more
Notification of the State Fiscal and Financial Policy Committee on the rate of compensation of expenses or lost revenue of state agencies under Section 28, B.E. 2565 (Royal Gazette vol. 139, special part 233 Ng), Clause 2Primary source
“ต้องมียอดคงค้างทั้งหมดรวมกันไม่เกินร้อยละสามสิบสองของงบประมาณรายจ่าย”
State Fiscal and Financial Disciplines Act, B.E. 2561 (2018) (tentative English translation for the Office of the Council of State), Section 28, paragraph 3Primary source
“The total outstanding amount of burdens in respect of which the State is obligated to make compensation for expenses incurred in the operation under paragraph one must not exceed the rate prescribed by the Commission.”
Zero risk weight and Level 1 liquid-asset status for baht government debt
Adds 4.0 points to the index
Commercial banks assign a 0% risk weight to baht claims on the Thai government and the Bank of Thailand (including the FIDF and the Deposit Protection Agency) up to the amount of their baht liabilities. Debt issued or guaranteed by the sovereign, the central bank, state agencies and state enterprises with a 0% risk weight counts as Level 1 high-quality liquid assets under the liquidity coverage ratio, which applies from 1 January 2016.
Why it counts: Government and central-bank paper costs banks no capital and fully meets the liquidity requirement, which makes it the default home for deposit funding.
Legal basis Notification of the Bank of Thailand No. FPG. 3/2563 Re: Regulations on the Calculation of Credit Risk-Weighted Assets for Commercial Banks under the Standardised Approach (SA) (No. 2), Attachment, item 1.1 and 1 more
Notification of the Bank of Thailand No. FPG. 3/2563 Re: Regulations on the Calculation of Credit Risk-Weighted Assets for Commercial Banks under the Standardised Approach (SA) (No. 2), Attachment, item 1.1Primary source
“The portion of assets and off-balance sheet items that do not exceed the commercial banks’ liabilities in Thai Baht shall be assigned a risk weight of 0%.”
Notification of the Bank of Thailand No. FPG. 9/2558 Re: The Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) Requirement, Item 5 (HQLA level 1); item 7 (effective date)Primary source
“debt securities issued or guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks, local government organisations, state agencies, state enterprises, multilateral development banks (MDBs) assigned a 0% risk-weight under the Standardised Approach for credit risk”
Social Security Fund: at least 60% in high-security assets
Adds 3.2 points to the index
The Social Security Fund must invest at least 60% of its assets in high-security assets and at most 40% in risk assets, under a 2016 Social Security Board regulation; a separate board notification caps foreign investment at 47% of the fund. At 30 June 2026 the fund held THB 3,041,974 million, of which 42.23% was in government, Bank of Thailand and Finance Ministry-guaranteed state-enterprise bonds.
Why it counts: Mandatory contributions of private-sector workers are pooled in a fund whose rules favour government and state-guaranteed paper, providing a large captive buyer for public debt.
Legal basis Social Security Board Regulation on the investment of the Social Security Fund B.E. 2559 (as reported by the Social Security Office)
Social Security Board Regulation on the investment of the Social Security Fund B.E. 2559 (as reported by the Social Security Office)Primary source
“ซึ่งเป็นไปตามระเบียบคณะกรรมการประกันสังคมว่าด้วยการจัดหาผลประโยชน์ของกองทุนประกันสังคม พ.ศ.2559 ที่กำหนดให้ลงทุนในหลักทรัพย์ที่มีความมั่นคงสูงไม่ต่ำกว่าร้อยละ 60”
Deposit levy to repay the FIDF's crisis losses
Adds 2.0 points to the index
Financial institutions pay an annual contribution of 0.46% of their average baht deposit base into an account that repays the loans used to cover the Financial Institutions Development Fund's crisis losses. In 2026 the Bank of Thailand reduced what goes to that account and banks are using FIDF contributions to share credit risk on new SME loans.
Why it counts: A levy on deposits services state-assumed crisis debt, lowering the interest banks can pay depositors, and part of it is now steered into state-chosen lending.
Legal basis Notification of the Bank of Thailand No. SorKorSor. 3/2555 (covering circular ธปท.ฝวต.(41)ว.944/2555), BOT Notification No. SorKorSor. 3/2555 (covering circular ธปท.ฝวต.(41)ว.944/2555) and 1 more
Notification of the Bank of Thailand No. SorKorSor. 3/2555 (covering circular ธปท.ฝวต.(41)ว.944/2555), BOT Notification No. SorKorSor. 3/2555 (covering circular ธปท.ฝวต.(41)ว.944/2555)Primary source
“อัตราร้อยละ 0.46 ต่อปีจากยอดคงเหลือถัวเฉลี่ยรายวันของเงินรับจากประชาชนของทุกสาขาและสำนักงานในประเทศไทยที่เป็นสกุลเงินบาท”
Bank of Thailand GovernorConnect press briefingPrimary source
“สถาบันการเงินได้ร่วมมือในการนำเงินนำส่งเข้ากองทุนเพื่อการฟื้นฟูและพัฒนาระบบสถาบันการเงิน (FIDF) มาช่วยเป็นกลไกแชร์ความเสี่ยงด้านเครดิต”
Tax-free interest and prizes on state-bank savings lotteries (GSB, BAAC, GH Bank)
Adds 1.2 points to the index
Interest on Government Savings Bank savings lottery bonds and on GSB demand deposits, and GSB savings-lottery prizes, are exempt from income tax under Section 42 of the Revenue Code. Under Ministerial Regulation No. 126, interest and prizes on BAAC and GH Bank savings lotteries, and interest on BAAC and GH Bank savings deposits, are also exempt without limit. By contrast, the statutory exemption for commercial-bank savings interest is capped (THB 10,000 a year in Section 42(8)(c)).
Why it counts: Tax-free returns draw household savings into state-owned banks, which fund government programmes and carry most of the Section 28 quasi-fiscal debt.
Legal basis Revenue Code, Section 42(8)(a) (as amended by Revenue Code Amendment Act No. 29, B.E. 2534) and 1 more
Revenue Code, Section 42(8)(a) (as amended by Revenue Code Amendment Act No. 29, B.E. 2534)Primary source
“(ก) ดอกเบี้ยสลากออมสินหรือดอกเบี้ยเงินฝากออมสินของรัฐบาลเฉพาะประเภทฝากเผื่อเรียก”
Revenue Department guide to tax-exempt income (summarising Ministerial Regulation No. 126 items), Item (81)Primary source
“ดอกเบี้ยและรางวัลสลากออมทรัพย์ของธนาคารเพื่อการเกษตรและสหกรณ์การเกษตร แต่ไม่รวมถึง ดอกเบี้ยซึ่งผู้รับมิใช่ผู้ทรงคนแรก”
Before today
The toolkit has no examples from Thailand yet.