Mexico
Mexico's financial repression runs mainly through its mandatory savings systems: Afore pension funds may hold at most 20% in foreign securities and invest mostly in federal government bonds (inflation-linked Udibonos alone were 28.7% of their assets at end-September 2026, per CONSAR), while a 5% payroll levy funds Infonavit housing accounts at an administered rate. Since 2024 dormant Afore and Infonavit balances of workers aged 70 pass to the state Pension Welfare Fund at the Banco de México. Banks get a zero risk weight on federal government exposures, and households outside the northern border strip cannot hold dollar bank deposits, with monthly caps on dollar cash. Banks and licensed fintechs may not offer crypto to the public, large property purchases cannot be paid in cash or precious metals, and Mexico City caps rent rises at inflation. A 2026 tax amnesty offers a 15% rate on repatriated funds that stay invested in Mexico, including in government bonds.
- 11 in force
- 0 enacted
- 0 proposed or under discussion
Measures as of
How the index is built
Each segment is what one category of rules, or the market pillar, adds to the index. The full bar is 100.
- Captive demand 8.0
- Central bank financing 0.0
- Capital controls 10.4
- Rate caps 0.0
- Prudential sovereign bias 4.0
- Directed credit 4.0
- Tax incentives 1.4
- Real asset restrictions 3.5
- Transaction taxes 0.0
- Market pillar 1.2
Index = 80% × rules (39.1) + 20% × market (6.2) = 32.5
The method in plain words
- Rules pillar (0–100). Each of the 9 categories can add up to its weight (the weights sum to 100). A category's intensity grows with every in-force measure in it: one measure counts by its severity factor (0.25 for severity 1, 0.5 for 2, 0.8 for 3), and each further measure closes part of the remaining gap, so breadth adds with diminishing returns: two severity-3 measures give 96%.
- Market pillar (0–100). The average of the market readings below: how negative the real policy rate is, and how much of the government's debt is held by its own central bank and banks.
- Index. 80% rules + 20% market when market data exists, otherwise rules alone. Laws passed but not yet applying count only in the outlook; proposals never count.
The 9 categories
Weight = the most points a category can add to the rules pillar. Intensity = how much of that weight the in-force measures fill. Open a category to see the measures counted; “What is this?” shows the instruments behind it, worldwide and in history.
- Weight 16Intensity 63%Points 8.0
Mandated holdings of government debt by pension funds, insurers or banks. What is this? →
Captive demand: measures counted in the index Measure counted Severity Factor Points 2 of 3 0.5 5.7 1 of 3 0.25 2.3 - Central bank financingWeight 16Intensity 0%Points 0.0
Central bank purchases of government debt, yield curve control, direct monetary financing. No in-force measures here. What is this? →
- Weight 16Intensity 81%Points 10.4
Limits on moving money abroad, outbound investment limits, FX controls. What is this? →
Capital controls: measures counted in the index Measure counted Severity Factor Points 2 of 3 0.5 4.3 2 of 3 0.5 4.3 1 of 3 0.25 1.8 - Rate capsWeight 14Intensity 0%Points 0.0
Caps or ceilings on deposit or lending rates, and administered interest rates. No in-force measures here. What is this? →
- Weight 10Intensity 50%Points 4.0
Prudential rules that favor sovereign debt (zero risk weights, liquidity-buffer rules, leverage-ratio exemptions). What is this? →
Prudential sovereign bias: measures counted in the index Measure counted Severity Factor Points 2 of 3 0.5 4.0 - Weight 10Intensity 50%Points 4.0
State-directed lending, credit guidance, and mandates to invest domestically or in state priorities. What is this? →
Directed credit: measures counted in the index Measure counted Severity Factor Points 2 of 3 0.5 4.0 - Weight 7Intensity 25%Points 1.4
Tax privileges for government bonds, or tax penalties on competing assets. What is this? →
Tax incentives: measures counted in the index Measure counted Severity Factor Points 1 of 3 0.25 1.4 - Weight 6Intensity 72%Points 3.5
Rent controls, property curbs, and limits on owning gold, cash or crypto. What is this? →
Real asset restrictions: measures counted in the index Measure counted Severity Factor Points 2 of 3 0.5 1.9 1 of 3 0.25 0.8 1 of 3 0.25 0.8 - Transaction taxesWeight 5Intensity 0%Points 0.0
Financial transaction taxes, stamp duties and similar levies on non-government assets. No in-force measures here. What is this? →
Market pillar 6.2 / 100
The average of the readings that have data, worth 20% of the index (1.2 points here).
Real policy rate
0.0 / 1003.2% · Aug 2026
Policy rate minus inflation. A real rate of +2% or more scores 0; −5% or less scores 100; in between it scales in a straight line. Savers lose most when it is deeply negative.
Policy rate 6.5% minus consumer price inflation 3.262% (year on year), 2026-08.
Debt held by the central bank and domestic banks
12.4 / 1007.5% of government debt · 2025-Q4
Share of government debt held by the domestic central bank and domestic banks. 0% scores 0; 60% or more scores 100; in between it scales in a straight line.
Central bank 0% + domestic banks 7.45% of general government debt, 2025-Q4.
Indicators
Measured data from international sources, alongside the rules above. Real rates below zero mean savers lose purchasing power.
Policy rate, inflation and real rate
Who holds government debt
The liquidation effect follows Reinhart and Sbrancia: with a negative real rate, about −(real rate × debt) of GDP moves from savers to the state each year. It uses the policy rate, so treat it as a rough guide. Sources: BIS, BIS central bank policy rates; BIS consumer prices; IMF, IMF DataMapper: World Economic Outlook (October 2026); Fiscal Monitor (October 2026); Menzie D. Chinn and Hiro Ito, The Chinn-Ito Index (KAOPEN): a de jure measure of financial openness; IMF, Sovereign Debt Investor Base for Advanced Economies / for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda).
Measures
Every measure tracked here, with its legal basis and sources. Only in-force measures count in the index.
In force (11)
2026 capital repatriation regime: 15% tax if funds stay invested in Mexico, including government bonds
Adds 1.4 points to the index
The 2026 Federal Revenue Law lets residents bring back funds held abroad up to 8 September 2025 and pay income tax at a flat 15% with no deductions, provided the money is returned by 31 December 2026 through Mexican banks or brokers and stays invested in Mexico for at least 3 years. Qualifying uses include Plan México fixed assets, real estate used in the business, R&D, paying liabilities to the Federation, government debt bonds and listed national priority sectors.
Why it counts: A tax discount conditioned on keeping capital onshore for three years pulls offshore savings back into domestic assets, with government bonds and debts owed to the state among the approved destinations.
Legal basis Ley de Ingresos de la Federación para el Ejercicio Fiscal de 2026, Artículo Vigésimo Cuarto Transitorio, fracciones I y II and 1 more
Ley de Ingresos de la Federación para el Ejercicio Fiscal de 2026, Artículo Vigésimo Cuarto Transitorio, fracciones I y IIPrimary source
“El impuesto a que se refiere este transitorio se calculará aplicando la tasa del 15 por ciento, sin deducción alguna, al monto total de los recursos que se retornen o ingresen al país”
Ley de Ingresos de la Federación para el Ejercicio Fiscal de 2026, Artículo Vigésimo Cuarto Transitorio, fracción VIII, inciso e)Primary source
“En la realización de inversiones en México a través de bonos de deuda gubernamental.”
Ban on paying for property, vehicles, jewellery and shares in cash or precious metals above set thresholds
Adds 0.8 points to the index
The federal anti-money-laundering law prohibits settling, in banknotes, coins, foreign currency or precious metals, real-estate transactions worth 8,025 times the daily UMA or more, and purchases of vehicles, watches, jewellery, precious metals and stones, art, and company shares worth 3,210 times the daily UMA or more. The ban applies even when the cash payment goes through a financial institution; the article was last rewritten on 16 July 2025.
Why it counts: Savings held as cash or bullion cannot be used directly to buy property or other large real assets, pushing wealth into the banking system where it is visible and taxable.
Legal basis Ley Federal para la Prevención e Identificación de Operaciones con Recursos de Procedencia Ilícita, Artículo 32, primer párrafo y fracción I (artículo reformado DOF 16-07-2025) and 1 more
Ley Federal para la Prevención e Identificación de Operaciones con Recursos de Procedencia Ilícita, Artículo 32, primer párrafo y fracción I (artículo reformado DOF 16-07-2025)Primary source
“mediante el uso de monedas y billetes, en moneda nacional o divisas y Metales Preciosos, aun cuando la liquidación o el pago se realice en efectivo por conducto de una Entidad Financiera”
Ley Federal para la Prevención e Identificación de Operaciones con Recursos de Procedencia Ilícita, Artículo 32, fracción IPrimary source
“Constitución o transmisión de derechos reales sobre bienes inmuebles por un valor igual o superior al equivalente a ocho mil veinticinco veces el valor diario de la UMA”
Mexico City caps residential rent increases at prior-year inflation
Adds 0.8 points to the index
Since the decree published in Mexico City's Gazette on 28 August 2024 (in force the next day), annual rent increases on residential leases may never exceed the inflation reported by the Banco de México for the previous year, and landlords must register leases in a city-run digital register within 30 days. In April 2026 Mayor Clara Brugada presented a 'Ley de Rentas Justas, Razonables y Asequibles' package, starting with a constitutional reform to enshrine the inflation cap, to be sent to the city congress.
Why it counts: Holding nominal rent growth to past inflation caps the real return on residential property in the capital, reducing its value as an inflation hedge for savers.
Legal basis Decreto por el que se reforma el segundo párrafo del artículo 2448 D y se adiciona un tercer y cuarto párrafo al artículo 2448 F del Código Civil para el Distrito Federal (Gaceta Oficial de la Ciudad de México, 28-08-2024), Código Civil para el Distrito Federal, Artículo 2448 D, segundo párrafo
Decreto por el que se reforma el segundo párrafo del artículo 2448 D y se adiciona un tercer y cuarto párrafo al artículo 2448 F del Código Civil para el Distrito Federal (Gaceta Oficial de la Ciudad de México, 28-08-2024), Código Civil para el Distrito Federal, Artículo 2448 D, segundo párrafoPrimary source
“El incremento de la renta nunca será mayor a la inflación reportada por el Banco de México en el año anterior, respecto de la cantidad pactada como renta mensual.”
Dormant pension and housing savings transferred to the state Pension Welfare Fund
Adds 2.3 points to the index
Since the April 2024 reform, Afores must transfer the retirement-account balances of IMSS workers who reach 70 without an active employment relationship to the Fondo de Pensiones para el Bienestar, a public trust at the Banco de México, without a court order; Infonavit must do the same with unclaimed housing-subaccount balances (ISSSTE accounts at 75). Owners keep a right to reclaim the money. Press reports put the first transfer from Afores at 24,238 million pesos.
Why it counts: Private retirement savings pass into a state-run fund that pays an old-age pension top-up, earning whatever return its government-set technical committee's investment regime yields rather than the saver's chosen Afore.
Legal basis Ley del Seguro Social, Artículo 302, segundo párrafo (reformado DOF 30-04-2024) and 1 more
Ley del Seguro Social, Artículo 302, segundo párrafo (reformado DOF 30-04-2024)Primary source
“deberán transferir los recursos de las subcuentas señaladas en el párrafo anterior al momento en que los trabajadores cumplan setenta años, sin necesidad de resolución judicial, al Fondo de Pensiones para el Bienestar”
Ley del Instituto del Fondo Nacional de la Vivienda para los Trabajadores, Artículo 37 (párrafos reformados DOF 30-04-2024)Primary source
“en caso de que el trabajador cumpla setenta años sin que dicho trabajador y, en su caso, los beneficiarios hubieren ejercido su derecho a recibir los recursos descritos en este artículo, el Instituto deberá transferir dichos recursos al Fondo de Pensiones para el Bienestar”
Banks and licensed fintechs barred from offering crypto to the public
Adds 1.9 points to the index
Under the Fintech Law, licensed fintech institutions may operate only with virtual assets that the Banco de México designates and only with its prior authorisation. Banxico's Circular 4/2019 limits banks and fintechs to 'internal operations' with virtual assets and requires them to prevent any of the risk passing to clients; Banxico, SHCP and CNBV stated in June 2021 that financial institutions are not authorised to offer the public operations with Bitcoin, Ether, XRP and other virtual assets, including custody, exchange or transfer, or peso/dollar stablecoin balances.
Why it counts: Keeping crypto out of the regulated financial system makes it harder for savers to buy, hold or custody crypto as an alternative to peso assets through a domestic bank or licensed platform.
Legal basis Ley para Regular las Instituciones de Tecnología Financiera, Artículo 30, segundo y tercer párrafos and 2 more
Ley para Regular las Instituciones de Tecnología Financiera, Artículo 30, segundo y tercer párrafosPrimary source
“Las ITF solo podrán operar con los activos virtuales que sean determinados por el Banco de México mediante disposiciones de carácter general.”
Circular 4/2019 (texto compilado, incl. Circular 37/2020), Disposición 3.aPrimary source
“Las Instituciones solo podrán celebrar las Operaciones con Activos Virtuales que correspondan a Operaciones Internas, sujeto a la previa autorización otorgada por el Banco de México”
Comunicado conjunto Banco de México, SHCP y CNBV sobre activos virtualesPrimary source
“Las instituciones financieras del país no están autorizadas a realizar y ofrecer al público operaciones con activos virtuales, tales como Bitcoin, Ether, XRP y otros”
Individuals outside the northern border zone barred from holding foreign-currency bank deposits
Adds 4.3 points to the index
Banco de México's rules let banks take foreign-currency sight deposits payable in Mexico only from individuals living within a 20 km strip along the northern border or in Baja California and Baja California Sur, from companies domiciled in Mexico and from accredited foreign missions; foreign-currency time deposits payable abroad are open only to companies. Banks must document that the customer qualifies.
Why it counts: Most Mexican households cannot hold dollar savings in a domestic bank account, which keeps bank deposits in pesos and makes dollarising savings harder and costlier.
Legal basis Circular 3/2012, Disposiciones aplicables a las operaciones de las instituciones de crédito y de la Financiera Nacional de Desarrollo (texto compilado incl. Circular 11/2026), Artículo 46, fracción I, inciso a) and 1 more
Circular 3/2012, Disposiciones aplicables a las operaciones de las instituciones de crédito y de la Financiera Nacional de Desarrollo (texto compilado incl. Circular 11/2026), Artículo 46, fracción I, inciso a)Primary source
“De personas físicas con domicilio en poblaciones localizadas en una franja de veinte kilómetros paralela a la línea divisoria internacional norte del país o en los estados de Baja California y Baja California Sur”
Circular 3/2012 (texto compilado), Artículo 46, fracción IIPrimary source
“Respecto de depósitos a plazo pagaderos en el extranjero de personas morales que tengan su domicilio en territorio nacional.”
Limits on banks accepting US-dollar cash from individuals
Adds 1.8 points to the index
Banks may not accept more than US$4,000 a month in US-dollar cash from an individual customer for currency purchases, deposits, loan or service payments or transfers, under the anti-money-laundering rules issued under Article 115 of the Credit Institutions Law (limit introduced in June 2010). Tighter daily and monthly caps apply to non-customers, and companies may deposit dollar cash only in border and tourist zones or under exceptions they must justify.
Why it counts: Capping how much dollar cash savers can bank or convert makes it harder to hold and move dollar savings through the financial system, keeping households in peso assets.
Legal basis Resolución que reforma y adiciona las disposiciones de carácter general a que se refiere el artículo 115 de la Ley de Instituciones de Crédito (DOF 16-06-2010), as reproduced by the Supremo Tribunal de Justicia del Estado de Sonora, Disposición 33ª Bis, primer párrafo and 1 more
Resolución que reforma y adiciona las disposiciones de carácter general a que se refiere el artículo 115 de la Ley de Instituciones de Crédito (DOF 16-06-2010), as reproduced by the Supremo Tribunal de Justicia del Estado de Sonora, Disposición 33ª Bis, primer párrafoPrimary source
“Las Entidades deberán abstenerse de recibir de sus Clientes personas físicas dólares de los Estados Unidos de América en efectivo para la realización de operaciones de compra, recepción de depósitos”
Resolución que reforma y adiciona las disposiciones de carácter general a que se refiere el artículo 115 de la Ley de Instituciones de Crédito (DOF 16-06-2010), as reproduced by the Supremo Tribunal de Justicia del Estado de Sonora, Disposición 33ª Bis, primer párrafo (monthly limit)Primary source
“acumulado en el transcurso de un mes calendario, mayor a cuatro mil dólares de los Estados Unidos de América.”
Zero risk weight for Mexican federal government exposures
Adds 4.0 points to the index
CNBV's banking rules place exposures to the Banco de México and the centralised Federal Public Administration in risk group I-A with a 0% credit risk weight. In its 2015 review of Mexico's 2014 liquidity rule, the Basel Committee found that banks could count both peso and non-peso Mexican sovereign bonds as Level 1 liquid assets without limit, and that sovereign bonds and central-bank deposits made up on average 86% of sampled banks' Level 1 assets in May-September 2014.
Why it counts: Government paper needs no capital and fully satisfies liquidity requirements, so banks hold it in preference to private lending and absorb a large share of federal issuance.
Legal basis Disposiciones de carácter general aplicables a las instituciones de crédito (Circular Única de Bancos), Artículo 2 Bis 12, fracción III and 1 more
Disposiciones de carácter general aplicables a las instituciones de crédito (Circular Única de Bancos), Artículo 2 Bis 12, fracción IIIPrimary source
“Operaciones Sujetas a Riesgo de Crédito con o a cargo de las dependencias que conforman la Administración Pública Federal centralizada a la que se refiere el artículo 1 de la Ley Orgánica de la Administración Pública Federal.”
Disposiciones de carácter general aplicables a las instituciones de crédito (Circular Única de Bancos), Artículo 2 Bis 12, último párrafoPrimary source
“Las Operaciones y activos con o a cargo de las personas comprendidas en este grupo, tendrán una ponderación por riesgo de crédito de 0 (cero) por ciento.”
Statutory 20% cap on foreign securities in Afore pension funds
Adds 4.3 points to the index
The Retirement Savings Systems Law bars the Siefores (the funds that invest mandatory Afore pension savings) from buying foreign securities other than those CONSAR authorises, and caps them at 20% of each fund's total assets; CONSAR's current investment-limit table still applies the 20% cap to every basic Siefore. CONSAR statistics for end-September 2026 show international equities at 15.1% and international debt at 0.6% of the basic Siefores' net assets, while Udibonos (28.7%), fixed-rate Bonos (14.4%) and Cetes (4.5%) are the largest single holdings.
Why it counts: Locking at least 80% of mandatory pension savings into domestic assets creates a home-biased captive investor base for Mexican government bonds and limits workers' escape from peso and sovereign risk.
Legal basis Ley de los Sistemas de Ahorro para el Retiro, Artículo 48, fracción XI (reformada DOF 10-12-2002)
Ley de los Sistemas de Ahorro para el Retiro, Artículo 48, fracción XI (reformada DOF 10-12-2002)Primary source
“Adquirir valores extranjeros distintos a los autorizados por la Comisión en el régimen de inversión. Estos valores no deberán exceder el 20% del activo total de la sociedad de inversión”
Pension investment regime favours federal debt and national development goals
Adds 5.7 points to the index
The Retirement Savings Systems Law requires the Afore investment regime to channel investments 'preponderantly' into securities that foster national productive activity, employment, housing, strategic infrastructure and regional development, and requires debt of issuers other than the Federal Government to carry ratings. CONSAR's investment regime lets each basic Siefore hold up to 100% in debt issued or guaranteed by the Federal Government, against 5% per private domestic issuer and 10% for state-owned enterprise debt, and requires the oldest cohort's fund (Siefore Básica de Pensiones) to keep at least 51% in assets that protect against Mexican inflation.
Why it counts: The statutory purpose ties mandatory pension savings to state development priorities and domestic issuers, and treats federal debt as the default safe asset.
Legal basis Ley de los Sistemas de Ahorro para el Retiro, Artículo 43, primer párrafo and 1 more
Ley de los Sistemas de Ahorro para el Retiro, Artículo 43, primer párrafoPrimary source
“proveerá que las inversiones se canalicen preponderantemente, a través de su colocación en valores, a fomentar: a) La actividad productiva nacional;”
Ley de los Sistemas de Ahorro para el Retiro, Artículo 43, tercer párrafoPrimary source
“Los instrumentos de deuda emitidos por personas jurídicas distintas al Gobierno Federal deberán estar calificados por empresas calificadoras de reconocido prestigio internacional.”
Before today
The toolkit has no examples from Mexico yet.